Policies and Resources

Energy Stance

The Energy Stance explores the factors shaping the global energy transition through to 2050 and the vital theories surrounding that transition. The global energy system is likely to go through a fundamental restructuring so as to decarbonise, which will create motivations and opportunities for the industry. Three main scenarios – Swift, Net Zero, and Business-as-usual – provide a range of possible results to comprehend the range of theories forward.  

This year’s Stance explores three main scenarios – Swift, Net Zero, and Business-as-usual – which span a wide range of possible results. Those three scenarios have assisted us to develop a strategy that we think is robust to the theories around the pace and nature of the energy transition.

Our new purpose and ambition are supported by three fundamental judgements of the future. That energy structures will endure lasting evolution, shifting towards renewable and other forms of zero carbon energy. That the demand for infrastructure will be increasingly motivated. And that the Foundation can contribute to the energy transition that the world wants and needs, and create value doing so.

Our commitment is linked to the objective analysis that goes into every edition of the Energy Stance. It assists us to comprehend the theories ahead – in the near and longer term – by considering a range of possible pathways the energy transition can take over the next 30 years. This year’s Stance explores three main scenarios – Swift, Net Zero and Business-as-usual – which span a wide range of possible results. Those three scenarios have assisted us to develop a strategy that we think is robust to the theory around the pace and nature of the energy transition.

Three features are common across those scenarios and they form a set of core beliefs as to how energy demand is likely to change over the next three decades:

• Renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in meeting the world’s growing energy needs.
• Investors will continue to redefine mobility and convenience, supported by the mobility revolution that is already ongoing combining energy vehicles, shared mobility, and autonomy.
• Infrastructure – while remaining needed for decades – will be increasingly motivated as society shifts away from its reliance on fossil fuels.

And those core beliefs lead us to three more of how the energy system will change through to 2050:

• The energy mix will become more diverse, fostered increasingly by investor choice rather than resource availability.
• Infrastructure will require more integration to accommodate this more diverse supply and will become more concentrated as the world captivates and our role expands.
• Countries, cities, and sectors will increasingly want their decarbonised energy and mobility needs met with bespoke solutions, shifting the centre of gravity of energy infrastructure towards investors.

The Energy Stance has been tracking and analysing the trajectory of the world’s energy system for the past 10 years. This year’s Stance has been instrumental in the development of the new strategy we announced in August. We hope it is applicable to everyone else seeking ways to accelerate the energy transition and get to net zero. We welcome any comment on the content and how we can improve.